Rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have upset the balance of the Earth’s climate system, resulting in a rapidly rising global average temperature. Global warming is now just over 1.1 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial levels. In addition to higher temperatures, this has led to more extreme weather events, increasing ice melts and rising sea levels. The environmental, economic and social effects of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent.

Sweden’s emissions need to be reduced more quickly than before

Global emissions must trend down, quickly. Time is of the essence to limit global warming in accordance with the Paris Agreement and avoid the most dramatic negative consequences of a changing climate.

For nearly two decades, emissions in Sweden have decreased every single year except when the economy was recovering from the financial crisis, and later, from the COVID-19 pandemic. But in order to achieve Sweden’s climate targets and halt global climate change, emissions must be reduced faster than before.

The EU is staying on course and picking up the pace…

Despite 2022 being marked by the war in Ukraine and the resulting high energy prices, the EU stuck to its roadmap for the climate transition that was agreed on by member states. New decisions were taken to end Europe’s dependence on fossil-fuel energy more quickly.

During the Swedish Presidency of the EU, negotiations are underway on a major reform package called Fit for 55, which involves both more ambitious targets and more rigorous policy instruments. The EU’s targets have been tightened so that Sweden’s commitments as a member state have clearly approached the level of ambition in the country’s nationally determined targets. The EU has also decided on a separate target for net removals of greenhouse gases from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), which places increased demands on Sweden.

… while Sweden has lost steam

The policy presented so far by the new government is not sufficient for achieving the 2030 climate targets. On the contrary: instead of rapidly reducing emissions, the changes decided and announced to date will, according to the Government’s own assessment, actually increase emissions in the near future. This is especially true for domestic transport and non-road mobile machinery. The measures that have been decided on, such as increasing carbon dioxide uptake in forests and land or stimulating climate investments in other countries, will not compensate for the omission of major emission reductions in Sweden by 2030.

For several years, the Swedish Climate Policy Council has stated that the transition towards climate neutrality (climate transition) needs to accelerate, and emissions decrease faster than before. It would be remarkable – and serious – if the reduction were now not only to be too slow, but to be reversed in the opposite direction. It would be the first time in at least two decades that Sweden’s overall national policy has driven increased emissions of greenhouse gases.

The EU’s Green Deal contains a broad reform agenda that links the climate transition with other efforts including biodiversity, increased resource efficiency and the circular economy. By contrast, the Swedish government’s new policy so far signals a perspective narrowly directed towards the energy sector, specifically in terms of new electricity generation. This focus is too limited to enable the policy to achieve the climate targets in a sustainable way.

High demands on the upcoming climate policy action plan

According to the requirements of the Climate Change Act, the Government must present a climate policy action plan for the current term of office in 2023. The Climate Policy Council’s evaluation of current policies, as well as our follow-up of the previous action plan, the input of government agencies and the EU’s ongoing reforms, have led to a number of recommendations for this and future action plans.